Nov 21, 2016
Volatility Review: The Trumpocalypse is fading. VIX cash is back below 14. VVIX = 87, back below 100.
Russells Weekly Rundown:
- If a Trump Presidency is scary, why is VIX so low?
- VIX Options: A lighter volume week than last week - started strong, pushing 1M contracts on Tuesday, but then fell off. Total 3.88m (2.80m Calls, 1.08m Puts)
- Crude Oil: OIV = 48, elevated compared to recent weeks - spiked to 53 on Wednesday.
Volatility Voicemail/Options #Question of the Week
$TSLA ($182.50, down 3%, IV30:41, HV30:31) Straddle says $8.20 move (4.5%) by Friday close. How much will $TSLA actually move?
- 20% - In line: ($8-$8.50)
- 37% - Beat Straddle: > $8
- 23% - Less than Straddle: < $8
- 20% - Sick of #Musk / $TSLA
Listener questions and comments:
- Question from Alex Devers - What does the future hold in terms of social media sentiment and volatility. Is there a social volatility index out there already? If not is this something the folks at CBOE are cooking up?
- Question from Avec - Has anyone studied the effect of selling weekly options vs monthly options INCLUDING commissions? Seems like that would be a big factor when writing so many contracts.
Crystal Ball: Reckless and wild prognostication.
Last Week:
- Mark L. - 15
- Mark S. - 12
- Russell - 13.5
This Week:
- Mark L. - 11.75
- Mark S. - 12.25
- Russell - 14