Jan 7, 2019
Volatility Views 336: Kicking off 2019 With Some Volatility
AAPL VOL IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Those $AAPL Jan 150 puts that everyone sold in our last poll for $2 are now ITM. So our question is - what do you do now? Do you keep the stock around $148? Sell covered calls to "wheel out?" Roll or close the position? Let us know here.
Our mega 2019 Crystal Ball Prediction Contest is underway. Many of you have already participated. Here's a few of your predictions for the closing price of VIX in 2019:
WHERE WILL VIX BE AT THE CLOSE OF 2019?
ROCKLOBSTER- 16.01, 14.99
Mark L. 17.10 - AVG FOR YEAR 17.60
Greasy Meatball: CLOSE - 12.04, AVG. 14.05
akatz000: 31.5. I think we've got one more down day to round out 2018. Then again, I had just started trading vol and was holding XIV on Volpocalypse, so what do I know
Neil Wales - 13.3
contango - 12.14
Mail Man Dan - 12/31 closes at $257.50 on $SPY and $VIX at $22.50
Brad Huff - 27.25
Filip (FContangotrader) - 32.4
Matt Thompson - 18.03
Ahmed Sharif - Feels 3 cents too high to me
Pat Hennessy - 21.52
David Lincoln - 16.90
Bill Luby - EOY 2019 $VIX guesstimate: 15.83
Ophir Gottlieb - 25.42
Andrew Nightingale - 32
Andrew Giovinazzi - 16.1
Trading Volatility - 24.3
Steve Place: armageddon, end of world, plagues and locusts, markets close, 0 percent vol, checkmate
Volatility Trading: 17.50 2019 average with a 14.50 VIX at year end
Pat Hennessy, CMT: Proposing another form of this question. What will the average VIX (based on daily closes) be in 2019? Chart attached for reference of past years….My guess is 19.27...oh and dont hit me about "average VIX" issues
Zaphod: I wasnt sure what they meant and like this way. Have to drop in q1 from here, shenanigans/earnings, Mueller, settling/boredom....dont think we spend a lot of time below 16....so 21.35 as some spikes weigh on the average. No clue in reality ofc.
filip: Close your eyes and BTFD
Andrew Nightingale, CFA: 32
Jay Soloff: First half of 2019 average = 28, second half =16, but I think the lower prints outweigh the higher prints so we end up with an average like 18.5. Do not question the rigorous maths I used to come up with that number. It's proprietary and may involve an abacus and rye toast.
David Lincoln: 16.90, 17.9 for the average…
Trading Volatility: 24.3...Low of 17.6 and high of 63.2
Barton: Great chart. My guess is 25% between 2007 and 2008 levels. 17.54 X.75+32.69 X .25 = 21.33….I would have guessed half way between 2007 and 2008, if we did not have the systematic short vol crowd.
Matt Thompson, CFA: 18.03….Agree that's a better metric. End of year, you are really just guessing what is gonna happen in Dec...My 2019 average guess is 24.88
f ili p: $vix 32.4