Jan 7, 2013
Volatility Views 75: New Year, New Questions
Volatility Review: Happy 2013 to all our Volatility Views listeners! The market rallied across the board and then sold off after a deal was finally struck in Washington. S&P vol review.
Mail Bag: Keep those questions coming.
· Tweet from Southbay Trader: I especially like Volatility Views!
· Tweet from Billmoo: OIR - Top Financial Podcast of 2012!
· Email from Allen Jacobs - Danbury, CT: Can you guys talk about dispersion trading? I've heard that term quite a bit recently. I think it has to do with volatility trading, but I'm not sure how or why, but I think I've turned to the right people for help. Thanks for your show Mark, it's a big help to people like me, who aspire to one day be volatility pros like you guys.
· Tweet from Leroy: Why weren't people aggressively shorting vol pre-cliff deal like the debt deal?
· Email from Anonymous: I run the vol book at a local shop. I found your show about Mr. Black Swan very illuminating. I've read all of Mr. Taleb's books and even met him several times. Like you, I assumed his trading style to be heavily long premium, and was surprised to hear the opposite. I would expect former market makers like "the Marks" and a former upstairs trader like Don to be aggressively short ATM premium, but not Mr. Taleb. He appears to be preparing himself for his black swan events by back spreading and being net long units, so it isn't a complete cop-out - he's not just writing ATM straddle and heading for the hills. Like all of you and your recent guest (Jared Woodward), I too am left with a somewhat bitter taste in my mouth after learning this information, it doesn't fit with the overall message and marketing of his work.
· Email from Theodore Grant - Pittsburgh, PA: Mark, Volatility Views is my favorite show on your network! I wish there were more podcasts out there talking about volatility trading - you guys truly stand alone. My question has to do with tail risk, one of your favorite subjects. You guys always talk about tail risk and how it's become dramatically overpriced in indexes like the S&P 500 and even large cap stocks like Google. What about in commodity products like GLD, corn, oil, etc.? In those products the tail risk is found on the upside. Do you see the same overpricing of premium in the upside calls in those products as we currently see in downside SPY and Google puts? Thank you.
The Crystal Ball: Earnings season kicks off next week. Are we heading towards the winter doldrums?